MeritValue

OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/

OXYdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.89 and $54.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26B1$36.2B2$23.2B3$22.7B3$21.6B3
Net income$2.32B4$13.3B4$4.7B4$3.08B5$2.37B5
Operating cash flow$10.4B6$16.8B7$12.3B8$11.4B8$10.5B8
Capital expenditure$2.87B9$4.5B10$5.7B11$6.26B11$6.43B11
Free cash flow (derived)$7.56B6$12.3B7$6.61B8$5.18B8$4.11B8
Total debt$29B12$19.1B13$19B14$25.3B15$21.4B15
Cash & equivalents$2.76B16$984M17$1.43B18$2.13B19$1.97B19
Diluted shares958.8M1.00B960.9M967.1M1.00B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$360.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$213.95

10 shares is a claim on $360.3 of net worth that earned you $23.69 and generated $41.05 of cash last year, against $213.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 28%FY23 7%FY24 5%FY25 4%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 26% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.89 and $54.52 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.18B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$54.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.18B
Earnings Power Value
$31.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.08B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $54.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$54.52
Base0.0%$54.52
Bull5.0%$72.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000797468-24-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000797468-25-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000797468-24-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009059 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000797468-24-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000797468-25-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000797468-24-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000797468-25-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000797468-23-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000797468-24-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000797468-25-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009059 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000797468-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000797468-24-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000797468-25-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)