MeritValue

OXFORD INDUSTRIES INC

OXMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OXFORD INDUSTRIES INC earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $45.56 and $64.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.14B1$1.41B2$1.57B3$1.52B3$1.48B3
Net income$131.3M4$165.7M5$60.7M6$93M6−$27.9M6
Operating cash flow$198M7$125.6M8$244.3M9$194M9$119.6M9
Capital expenditure$31.9M10$46.7M11$74.1M12$134.2M12$108.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$166.1M7$78.9M8$170.2M9$59.8M9$11.3M9
Total debt—$238M13$58.3M14$31.1M15$116.4M15
Cash & equivalents$44.9M16$8.83M17$7.6M18$9.47M19$8.13M19
Diluted shares16.9M16.3M15.9M15.8M15.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$344.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$77.82

10 shares is a claim on $344.07 of net worth that earned you −$18.64 and generated $7.56 of cash last year, against $77.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY22 28%FY23 21%FY24 10%FY25 14%FY26 -5%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 51% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $45.56 and $64.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$45.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$59.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$49.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$59.8M
Earnings Power Value
$64.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$93M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $49.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.86
Base0.0%$49.86
Bull5.0%$63.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000075288-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000075288-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000075288-26-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000075288-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000075288-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000075288-26-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000075288-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000075288-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000075288-26-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000075288-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000075288-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000075288-26-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000075288-24-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000075288-25-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000075288-26-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000075288-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000075288-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000075288-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000075288-26-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)