MeritValue

BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC.

OWLdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 53% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.85 and $79.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$823.9M1$1.37B2$1.73B3$2.3B3$2.87B3
Net income−$376.2M4−$9.29M5$54.3M6$109.6M6$78.8M6
Operating cash flow$281.7M7$728.4M8$949.1M9$999.6M9$1.26B9
Capital expenditure$5.26M10$65.5M11$67.9M12$64.2M12$57.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$276.4M7$662.9M8$881.2M9$935.4M9$1.2B9
Total debt$1.17B13$1.62B14$1.68B15$2.59B16$3.32B16
Cash & equivalents$42.6M17$68.1M18$104.2M19$152.1M20$194.5M20
Diluted shares—433.4M478.0M558.4M661.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$33.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$50.23

10 shares is a claim on $33.32 of net worth that earned you $1.19 and generated $18.1 of cash last year, against $50.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -52%FY22 0%FY23 9%FY24 10%FY25 6%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+53% shares · 5y

Share count is up 53% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 183% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.85 and $79.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$79.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$935.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$935.4M
Earnings Power Value
$0.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$54.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.46
Base20.0%$41.35
Bull20.0%$41.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823945-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823945-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823945-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823945-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823945-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823945-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823945-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823945-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823945-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823945-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823945-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823945-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823945-23-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823945-24-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823945-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001823945-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823945-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823945-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823945-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001823945-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)