MeritValue

Oak Valley Bancorp

OVLYdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Oak Valley Bancorp earns about 15% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.88 and $124.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$49.8M1$61.2M2$80.7M3$82.9M4$87.9M4
Net income$16.3M5$22.9M6$30.8M7$24.9M8$23.9M8
Operating cash flow$11.2M9$22.8M10$33.1M11$25.6M12$28.7M12
Capital expenditure$978,00013$1.19M14$1.89M15$1.78M16$4.11M16
Free cash flow (derived)$10.2M9$21.6M10$31.2M11$23.9M12$24.6M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$778.3M17$429.6M18$216.6M19$168.8M20$232.2M20
Diluted shares8.2M8.2M8.2M8.3M8.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$250.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.62
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $250.82 of net worth that earned you $28.84 and generated $29.62 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
15% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 18%FY23 19%FY24 14%FY25 11%

It earned about 15% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.88 and $124.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$124.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.0%
  • fcfBase$24.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$98.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.0%
  • fcfBase$24.6M
Earnings Power Value
$29.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$23.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $98.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$70.32
Base12.0%$98.23
Bull17.0%$113.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008389 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010372 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010215 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009757 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008389 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010372 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010215 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009757 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008389 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010372 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010215 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009757 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008389 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010372 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010215 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009757 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008389 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010372 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010215 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009757 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)