MeritValue

Ovid Therapeutics Inc.

OVIDdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ovid Therapeutics Inc. earns about -45% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 91% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$208.4M1$1.5M2$392,0003$566,0004$7.25M4
Net income$122.8M5−$54.2M6−$52.3M7−$26.4M8−$17.4M8
Operating cash flow$118.6M9−$55.2M10−$45.8M11−$56M12−$38.3M12
Capital expenditure$184,00813$1.22M14$40,00015$71,00016$016
Free cash flow (derived)$118.4M9−$56.5M10−$45.8M11−$56M12−$38.3M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$187.8M17$44.9M18$27M19$26.3M20$13.2M20
Diluted shares68.1M70.4M70.6M71.0M130.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.34
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.94
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.04 of net worth that earned you −$1.34 and generated −$2.94 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-45% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -49%FY23 -68%FY24 -50%FY25 -12%

It earned an average -45% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+91% shares · 5y

Share count is up 91% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007648 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009809 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011844 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019438 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007648 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009809 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011844 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019438 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007648 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009809 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011844 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019438 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007648 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009809 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011844 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019438 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007648 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009809 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011844 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019438 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)