MeritValue

OUTFRONT Media Inc.

OUTdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OUTFRONT Media Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.74 and $62.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.46B1$1.77B2$1.82B3$1.83B3$1.83B3
Net income$35.6M4$142.7M5−$425.2M6$258.2M6$147M6
Operating cash flow$98.8M7$254.1M8$254.2M9$299.2M9$307.6M9
Capital expenditure$73.8M10$89.8M11$86.8M12$78.1M12$88.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$25M7$164.3M8$167.4M9$221.1M9$218.8M9
Total debt$2.62B13$2.66B14$2.74B15$2.49B16$2.58B16
Cash & equivalents$424.8M17$40.4M18$36M19$46.9M20$99.9M20
Diluted shares146.1M157.9M161.0M170.8M169.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$41.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$152.68

10 shares is a claim on $41.99 of net worth that earned you $8.69 and generated $12.93 of cash last year, against $152.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 7%FY23 -6%FY24 8%FY25 5%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.74 and $62.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$218.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$218.8M
Earnings Power Value
$8.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$142.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.8
Base20.0%$27.48
Bull20.0%$27.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579877-24-000015 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579877-25-000034 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579877-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579877-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579877-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579877-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579877-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579877-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579877-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579877-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579877-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579877-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579877-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579877-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579877-25-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001579877-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579877-23-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579877-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579877-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001579877-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)