MeritValue

Ouster, Inc.

OUSTdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ouster, Inc. earns about -86% on invested capital, and has bought back 58% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$33.6M1$41M2$83.3M3$111.1M4$169.4M4
Net income−$94M5−$138.6M6−$374.1M7−$97M8−$60.4M8
Operating cash flow−$71.1M9−$110.7M10−$137.9M11−$33.7M12−$40M12
Capital expenditure$4.28M13$5.42M14$3.01M15$3.76M16$24.9M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$75.3M9−$116.1M10−$140.9M11−$37.5M12−$64.8M12
Total debt$017$79.1M18$44M19$019—
Cash & equivalents$182.6M20$122.9M20$51M21$45.5M22$67.4M22
Diluted shares133.9M17.8M37.0M46.6M56.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.72
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.51
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $46.46 of net worth that earned you −$10.72 and generated −$11.51 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-86% avg · 5y
FY21 -97%FY22 -84%FY23 -167%FY24 -56%FY25 -26%

It earned an average -86% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−58% shares · 5y

Share count is down 58% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009161 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013619 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014318 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013313 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009161 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013619 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014318 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013313 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009161 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013619 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014318 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013313 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009161 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013619 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014318 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013313 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009161 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013619 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014318 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013619 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014318 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013313 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)