VanEck Merk Gold ETF

OUNZdata completeness 38%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'operatingCashFlow'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

VanEck Merk Gold ETF earns about 22% on equity, but has diluted owners by 86% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	FY 2026
Revenue	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$18.2M¹	$31.6M²	$37.9M³	$313.1M³	$1.09B³
Operating cash flow	—	—	—	—	—
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	—	—	—	—	—
Diluted shares	33.6M	35.2M	39.6M	48.7M	62.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$465.58

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$175.25

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $465.58 of net worth that earned you $175.25 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

22% avg · 5y

FY22 —FY23 —FY24 5%FY25 24%FY26 38%

It earned an average 22% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+86% shares · 5y

Share count is up 86% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

$6.3

assumptions (8)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
normalizedEarnings$37.9M
growthAssumed0.0%

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027921 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004274 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035486 (NetIncomeLoss)