MeritValue

Oatly Group AB

OTLYdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Oatly Group AB earns about -48% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$643.2M1$722.2M2$783.3M3$823.7M3$862.5M3
Net income−$212.4M4−$392.6M5−$416.9M6−$201.9M6−$152.8M6
Operating cash flow−$213.8M7−$268.9M8−$165.6M9−$114.4M9−$23.7M9
Capital expenditure$273.8M10$201.7M11$66.1M12$39.1M12$12.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$487.6M7−$470.6M8−$231.7M9−$153.6M9−$36.1M9
Total debt$5.99M13$52.6M14$120.3M15$446.4M16$523M16
Cash & equivalents$295.6M17$82.6M18$249.3M18$98.9M18$64.3M18
Diluted shares591.8M592.3M595.1M598.6M624.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.38

10 shares is a claim on $0.3 of net worth that earned you −$2.45 and generated −$0.58 of cash last year, against $8.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-48% avg · 5y
FY21 -18%FY22 -41%FY23 -141%FY24 -25%FY25 -14%

It earned an average -48% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 8636% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035039 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038739 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001843586-26-000004 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035039 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038739 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001843586-26-000004 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035039 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038739 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001843586-26-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035039 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038739 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001843586-26-000004 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-013559 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035039 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038739 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001843586-26-000004 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038739 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001843586-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalents)