MeritValue

Oncotelic Therapeutics, Inc.

OTLCdata completeness 50%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Oncotelic Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -23% on equity, but has diluted owners by 39% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$70,0001——
Net income−$9.39M2$5.09M3−$7.9M4−$4.52M5$249.3M5
Operating cash flow−$4.43M6−$1.45M7−$1.32M8−$740,2779−$1.38M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$359,26210$390,05011$1.77M12$2.42M12—
Cash & equivalents$568,76913$241,45214$170,40514——
Diluted shares303.1M457.3M396.2M404.4M422.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.9
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6.22 of net worth that earned you $5.9 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-23% avg · 5y
FY21 -118%FY22 26%FY23 -65%FY24 -55%FY25 95%

It earned an average -23% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+39% shares · 5y

Share count is up 39% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 574% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004846 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012978 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014475 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004846 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016838 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012978 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014475 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004846 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-010094 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014475 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004846 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012978 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014475 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)