MeritValue

Otis Worldwide Corp

OTISdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Otis Worldwide Corp earns about 18% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.66 and $36.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.3B1$13.7B2$14.2B3$14.3B3$14.4B3
Net income$1.25B4$1.25B5$1.41B6$1.65B6$1.38B6
Operating cash flow$1.75B7$1.56B8$1.63B9$1.56B9$1.6B9
Capital expenditure$156M10$115M11$138M12$126M12$152M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.59B7$1.45B8$1.49B9$1.44B9$1.44B9
Total debt$14.5B13$14.2B14$13.8B15$17.9B16$16.8B16
Cash & equivalents$1.57B17$1.19B18$1.27B19$2.3B19$1.1B19
Diluted shares431.4M423.0M414.6M404.4M394.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$136.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$424.23

10 shares is a claim on −$136.54 of net worth that earned you $35.05 and generated $36.57 of cash last year, against $424.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 18%FY23 21%FY24 17%FY25 16%

It earned about 18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.66 and $36.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.44B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.44B
Earnings Power Value
$36.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.38B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.6
Base0.0%$12.6
Bull5.0%$25.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781335-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781335-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781335-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781335-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781335-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781335-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781335-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781335-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781335-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781335-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781335-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781335-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781335-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781335-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781335-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001781335-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001781335-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001781335-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001781335-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)