MeritValue

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.

OTFdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. earns about 8% on equity, but has diluted owners by 194% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue———$27,0001$1.35M1
Net income$424.8M2$19M3$369.1M4$319.2M4$720.4M4
Operating cash flow−$2.62B5−$295.3M6$708.4M7$64.2M7−$916M7
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$3.16B8$2.95B9$2.91B10$6.29B10
Cash & equivalents$107M11$203.3M12$469M12$257M12$282.9M12
Diluted shares139.2M201.4M205.0M209.8M409.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$196.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.6
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$153.59

10 shares is a claim on $196.42 of net worth that earned you $17.6 last year, against $153.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 1%FY23 10%FY24 9%FY25 9%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+194% shares · 5y

Share count is up 194% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 99% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$9.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$369.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747777-26-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747777-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747777-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001747777-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747777-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747777-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001747777-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747777-24-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001747777-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747777-26-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747777-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747777-26-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)