MeritValue

ONESPAWORLD HOLDINGS Ltd

OSWdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ONESPAWORLD HOLDINGS Ltd earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.31 and $11.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$144M1$546.3M2$794M3$895M3$961M3
Net income−$68.5M4$53.2M5−$2.97M6$72.9M6$71.6M6
Operating cash flow−$35.1M7$24.8M8$63.4M9$78.8M9$83.5M9
Capital expenditure$2.87M10$4.83M11$5.42M12$6.74M12$15.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$38M7$19.9M8$58M9$72.1M9$68.4M9
Total debt$460.9M13$425.6M14$316.4M15$197.1M16$167.9M16
Cash & equivalents$30.9M17$32.1M18$27.7M19$57.4M20$16.3M20
Diluted shares90.1M95.1M97.8M104.9M103.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$52.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.2

10 shares is a claim on $52.34 of net worth that earned you $6.91 and generated $6.6 of cash last year, against $16.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY22 9%FY23 2%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 64% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.31 and $11.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$68.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$68.4M
Earnings Power Value
$5.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$53.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.25
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.97
Base5.0%$10.25
Bull10.0%$12.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022654 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024552 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062456 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022654 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024552 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062456 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022654 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024552 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062456 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022654 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024552 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062456 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005914 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022654 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024552 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062456 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005914 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022654 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024552 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)