MeritValue

ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES INC

OSURdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.41 and $8.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$233.7M1$387.5M2$405.5M3$185.8M3$115M3
Net income−$23M4−$17.1M5$53.7M6−$19.5M6−$68.7M6
Operating cash flow−$35.4M7−$47.2M8$141.6M9$27.4M9−$49M9
Capital expenditure$21.9M10$6.77M11$5.8M12$3.8M12$4.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$57.3M7−$54M8$135.8M9$23.6M9−$53.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$116.8M13$84M14$290.4M15$267.8M16$199.3M16
Diluted shares72.0M72.5M74.4M74.4M73.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.35
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.24
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $46.38 of net worth that earned you −$9.35 and generated −$7.24 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -4%FY23 38%FY24 -9%FY25 -36%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.41 and $8.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$23.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$23.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.3
Base5.0%$8.41
Bull10.0%$9.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001116463-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001116463-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001116463-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001116463-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001116463-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001116463-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001116463-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001116463-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001116463-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001116463-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001116463-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001116463-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001116463-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001116463-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001116463-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)