MeritValue

OSHKOSH CORP

OSKdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OSHKOSH CORP earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.52 and $96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.74B1$8.28B2$9.66B3$10.7B3$10.4B3
Net income$508.9M4$173.9M5$598M6$681.4M6$647M6
Operating cash flow$1.22B7$601.3M8$599.6M9$550.1M9$783.4M9
Capital expenditure$104.4M10$269.5M11$325.3M12$281M12$165.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.12B7$331.8M8$274.3M9$269.1M9$618M9
Total debt$1.64B13$1.2B14$1.37B15$961.8M16$1.1B16
Cash & equivalents$1.38B17$805.9M18$125.4M19$204.9M20$479.8M20
Diluted shares69.2M66.1M65.9M65.8M64.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$701.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$100.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$95.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$170.54

10 shares is a claim on $701.81 of net worth that earned you $100.23 and generated $95.73 of cash last year, against $170.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 4%FY23 11%FY24 12%FY25 11%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 33% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.52 and $96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$46.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$274.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$274.3M
Earnings Power Value
$96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$598M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$51.09
Base0.0%$51.09
Bull5.0%$65.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-022841 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024305 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054061 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-022841 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024305 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054061 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-022841 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024305 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-022841 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024305 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-003473 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022841 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024305 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054061 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-003473 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022841 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024305 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)