MeritValue

OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC

OSGdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC earns about -2% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26M1$30.7M2$51.3M3$92M3$143.4M3
Net income−$17M4$522.1M5$4.95M6−$556.1M6−$259.1M6
Operating cash flow−$131M7$1.34B7$200M7$762,0008−$52.3M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.23B9$639M10$508M10$150M11$117.6M11
Cash & equivalents$17M12$6.33M13$7.34M13$29.6M13$70.1M14
Diluted shares46.5M45.7M45.6M47.0M47.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$151.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$54.91
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$24.92

10 shares is a claim on $151.71 of net worth that earned you −$54.91 last year, against $24.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 -1%FY23 -1%FY24 -4%FY25 -9%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 95% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874501-24-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874501-25-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014653 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874501-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874501-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014653 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874501-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014653 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874501-23-000040 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874501-24-000040 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014653 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874501-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874501-25-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014653 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)