MeritValue

OLD SECOND BANCORP INC

OSBCdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

OLD SECOND BANCORP INC earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 62% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.76 and $143.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$105.2M1$216.5M2$292M3$297.9M3$355.2M3
Net income$20M4$67.4M5$91.7M6$85.3M6$80.3M6
Operating cash flow$31M7$97.3M8$116.4M9$131.5M9$122.3M9
Capital expenditure$2.03M10$4.33M11$12.4M12$10.8M12$4.51M12
Free cash flow (derived)$29M7$93M8$104M9$120.7M9$117.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$752.1M13$115.2M14$100.1M15$99.3M16$124M16
Diluted shares30.7M45.2M45.4M45.6M49.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$180.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.71
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $180.55 of net worth that earned you $16.17 and generated $23.71 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 22%FY23 25%FY24 22%FY25 39%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+62% shares · 5y

Share count is up 62% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.76 and $143.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$143.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$117.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$79.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$117.8M
Earnings Power Value
$16.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$80.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $79.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.37
Base20.0%$79.8
Bull20.0%$79.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002688 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002383 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020393 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002688 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002383 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020393 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002688 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002383 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020393 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002688 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002383 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020393 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003286 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002688 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002383 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020393 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)