MeritValue

ORRSTOWN FINANCIAL SERVICES INC

ORRFdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ORRSTOWN FINANCIAL SERVICES INC earns about 39% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 74% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.6 and $50.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.9M1$19.5M2$19.5M3$27.3M3$37.1M3
Net income$32.9M4$22M5$35.7M6$22.1M6$80.9M6
Operating cash flow$40.8M7$36.2M8$43.7M9$35M9$74.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.25M10$895,00011$2.29M12$1.58M12$4.24M12
Free cash flow (derived)$39.6M7$35.3M8$41.4M9$33.4M9$70.5M9
Total debt$25.2M13$18.7M14$40M15——
Cash & equivalents$208.7M16$60.8M17$65.2M17$248.9M17$149.8M17
Diluted shares11.1M10.7M10.4M14.9M19.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$305.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.42
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $305.62 of net worth that earned you $41.77 and generated $36.42 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
39% avg · 5y
FY21 43%FY22 16%FY23 30%FY24 54%FY25 54%

It earned about 39% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+74% shares · 5y

Share count is up 74% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 59% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.6 and $50.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$50.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.5%
  • fcfBase$41.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.5%
  • fcfBase$41.4M
Earnings Power Value
$17.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$32.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.31
Base5.5%$46.47
Bull10.5%$55.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826154-24-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000826154-25-000090 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017278 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826154-24-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000826154-25-000090 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017278 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826154-24-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000826154-25-000090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017278 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826154-24-000060 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000826154-25-000090 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017278 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826154-22-000079 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000826154-23-000067 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000826154-24-000060 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826154-25-000090 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017278 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)