MeritValue

Orion Group Holdings Inc

ORNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Orion Group Holdings Inc earns about -2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$601.4M1$748.3M2$711.8M3$796.4M3$852.3M3
Net income−$14.6M4−$12.6M5−$17.9M6−$1.64M6$2.49M6
Operating cash flow$69,0007$9.57M8$17.2M9$12.7M9$28.1M9
Capital expenditure$17M10$14.6M11$8.91M12$14.1M12$38.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$16.9M7−$5.02M8$8.27M9−$1.42M9−$10.8M9
Total debt$78.8M13$71.3M14$74.4M15$46.4M16$7.87M16
Cash & equivalents$12.3M17$3.78M18$30.9M19$28.3M19$1.59M19
Diluted shares30.8M31.4M32.3M34.8M39.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.63
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.99

10 shares is a claim on $40.12 of net worth that earned you $0.63 and generated −$2.72 of cash last year, against $1.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -3%FY23 -3%FY24 -1%FY25 2%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 90% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402829-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402829-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402829-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402829-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402829-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402829-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402829-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402829-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402829-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402829-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402829-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402829-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402829-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402829-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402829-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001402829-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402829-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402829-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402829-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)