MeritValue

O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC

ORLYdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC earns about 65% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 1130% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.47 and $28.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.3B1$14.4B2$15.8B3$16.7B3$17.8B3
Net income$2.16B4$2.17B5$2.35B6$2.39B6$2.54B6
Operating cash flow$3.21B7$3.15B8$3.03B9$3.05B9$2.76B9
Capital expenditure$442.9M10$563.3M11$1.01B12$1.02B12$1.17B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.76B7$2.58B8$2.03B9$2.03B9$1.59B9
Total debt$3.83B13$4.37B14$5.57B15$5.52B16$6.02B16
Cash & equivalents$362.1M17$108.6M18$279.1M19$130.2M20$193.8M20
Diluted shares69.6M65.0M915.0M880.6M855.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$8.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$70.3

10 shares is a claim on −$8.92 of net worth that earned you $29.65 and generated $18.61 of cash last year, against $70.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
65% avg · 5y
FY21 67%FY22 72%FY23 71%FY24 64%FY25 54%

It earned about 65% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1130% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1130% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 57% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.47 and $28.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.03B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.03B
Earnings Power Value
$28.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.35B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.02
Base0.0%$27.02
Bull5.0%$35.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000898173-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000898173-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000898173-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000898173-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000898173-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000898173-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000898173-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000898173-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000898173-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000898173-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000898173-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000898173-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000898173-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000898173-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000898173-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000898173-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000898173-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000898173-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000898173-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000898173-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)