Orla Mining Ltd.

ORLAdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Orla Mining Ltd. earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 37% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.39 and $9.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$4.12M¹	$193.2M²	$233.6M³	$343.9M⁴	$1.06B⁴
Net income	−$26.3M⁵	$45.8M⁶	−$27M⁷	$89M⁸	$106.9M⁸
Operating cash flow	−$24.7M⁹	$95.3M¹⁰	$65.3M¹¹	$174.6M¹²	$803.3M¹²
Capital expenditure	$3.3M¹³	$5.73M¹⁴	$8.15M¹⁵	$16.1M¹⁶	$35.1M¹⁶
Free cash flow (derived)	−$28M⁹	$89.6M¹⁰	$57.1M¹¹	$158.5M¹²	$768.2M¹²
Total debt	$161.4M¹⁷	$145.8M¹⁸	$88.4M¹⁹	—	$355.7M¹⁹
Cash & equivalents	$20.5M²⁰	$96.3M²¹	$96.6M²²	$160.8M²²	$420.8M²²
Diluted shares	247.6M	305.8M	315.1M	321.7M	340.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$19.29

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$3.14

Free cash flow it threw off

$22.58

Debt you’d be carrying

$10.46

10 shares is a claim on $19.29 of net worth that earned you $3.14 and generated $22.58 of cash last year, against $10.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

11% avg · 5y

FY21 -6%FY22 10%FY23 1%FY24 26%FY25 22%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+37% shares · 5y

Share count is up 37% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 120% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.39 and $9.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

$9.16

assumptions (10)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
terminalGrowth2.5%
projectionYears10
fcfGrowth5.0%
fcfBase$158.5M

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

$8.46

assumptions (10)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
terminalGrowth2.5%
projectionYears5
fcfGrowth5.0%
fcfBase$158.5M

Earnings Power Value

$1.39

assumptions (8)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
normalizedEarnings$45.8M
growthAssumed0.0%

Graham Number

$3.61

assumptions (1)

grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose

Is today’s price fair?

Market price See live price ↗

Type a price. The ledger answers.

Or set your own belief

FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%

Discount rate (WACC)8.93%

Terminal growth2.5%

At your growth, a share is worth $8.46

The three cases

Bear	0.0%	$6.85
Base	5.0%	$8.46
Bull	10.0%	$10.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts

40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-034210 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-036402 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000372 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032222 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-034210 (ProfitLoss)
40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-036402 (ProfitLoss)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000372 (ProfitLoss)
40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032222 (ProfitLoss)
40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-034210 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-036402 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000372 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032222 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-034210 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-036402 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000372 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032222 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-034210 (Borrowings)
40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-036402 (Borrowings)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032222 (Borrowings)
40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-036402 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000372 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032222 (CashAndCashEquivalents)