ORIENTAL RISE HOLDINGS Ltd

ORISFdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ORIENTAL RISE HOLDINGS Ltd earns about 11% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 83% of its shares over 4 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.1 and $44.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.3M1$24.1M2$15M2$12.2M2
Net income$11.9M3$11.5M4$2.09M4$681,0004
Operating cash flow$13.6M5$12.6M6$3.15M6−$583,0006
Capital expenditure$2,0007$1.76M8$258,0008$2.4M8
Free cash flow (derived)$13.6M5$10.8M6$2.89M6−$2.98M6
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$25.7M9$36.7M10$43M11$48.4M11
Diluted shares12.0M600,000620,5322.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$390.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.39
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.85
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $390.6 of net worth that earned you $3.39 and generated −$14.85 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
11% avg · 4y
FY22 22%FY23 18%FY24 3%FY25 1%

It earned about 11% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−83% shares · 4y

Share count is down 83% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.1 and $44.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$43.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.89M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$44.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.89M
Earnings Power Value
$35.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.79M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $44.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$44.73
Base0.0%$44.73
Bull5.0%$49.71

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037481 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050088 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037481 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050088 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037481 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050088 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037481 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050088 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-038842 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037481 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050088 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)