MeritValue

OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP

ORIdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $35.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.34B1$8.08B2$7.26B3$8.23B3$9.14B3
Net income$1.53B4$686.4M5$598.6M6$852.7M6$935.4M6
Operating cash flow$1.31B7$1.17B8$880.4M9$1.23B9$1.16B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$158.1M10$81M11$202.8M11$201.9M11$263.2M11
Diluted shares303.7M303.3M285.5M262.9M251.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$235.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.22
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $235.32 of net worth that earned you $37.22 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 12%FY23 11%FY24 17%FY25 18%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$35.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$852.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074260-24-000021 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074260-25-000042 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074260-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074260-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074260-25-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074260-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074260-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074260-25-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074260-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074260-25-000042 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074260-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)