MeritValue

Organogenesis Holdings Inc.

ORGOdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Organogenesis Holdings Inc. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.24 and $1.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$467.4M1$450.9M2$433.1M3$482M3$564.2M3
Net income$94.2M4$15.5M5$4.95M6$861,0006$37M6
Operating cash flow$62M7$24.9M8$30.9M9$14.2M9−$10.3M9
Capital expenditure$31.2M10$33.9M11$24.4M12$10M12$14.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$30.8M7−$9.04M8$6.55M9$4.18M9−$24.5M9
Total debt$74.1M13$71.3M14$66.6M15——
Cash & equivalents$113.9M16$102.5M17$103.8M18$135.6M19$93.7M19
Diluted shares133.7M132.4M132.7M131.7M130.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$23.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.88
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $23.04 of net worth that earned you $2.84 and generated −$1.88 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 7%FY23 3%FY24 -2%FY25 18%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 10% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.24 and $1.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.18M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.18M
Earnings Power Value
$1.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.18
Base5.0%$1.29
Bull10.0%$1.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023150 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029137 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076730 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023150 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029137 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076730 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023150 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029137 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076730 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023150 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029137 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076730 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-061686 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005585 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023150 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005585 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023150 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029137 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076730 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)