MeritValue

Origin Materials, Inc.

ORGNdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Origin Materials, Inc. earns about -49% on invested capital, and has bought back 95% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$01$28.8M2$31.3M3$18.9M3
Net income$42.1M4$78.6M5$23.8M6−$83.7M7−$249.7M7
Operating cash flow−$22M8−$26.1M9−$60.4M10−$50.8M11−$32.8M11
Capital expenditure$12.3M12$83.7M13$102.2M14$8.95M15$30.2M15
Free cash flow (derived)−$34.3M8−$109.8M9−$162.5M10−$59.8M11−$63M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$46.6M16$107.9M17$75.5M18$56.3M19$32.9M19
Diluted shares106.2M142.1M142.7M4.8M4.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$210.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$505.47
Free cash flow it threw off
−$127.53
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $210.96 of net worth that earned you −$505.47 and generated −$127.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-49% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 29%FY23 7%FY24 -23%FY25 -276%

It earned an average -49% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−95% shares · 5y

Share count is down 95% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001802457-24-000019 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802457-25-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001802457-26-000017 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001802457-23-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001802457-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802457-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001802457-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001802457-23-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001802457-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802457-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001802457-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001802457-23-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001802457-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802457-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001802457-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001802457-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001802457-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802457-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001802457-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)