MeritValue

ORACLE CORP

ORCLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ORACLE CORP earns about 253% on equity, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $37.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$42.4B1$50B2$53B3$57.4B3$67.4B3
Net income$6.72B4$8.5B5$10.5B6$12.4B6$17.1B6
Operating cash flow$9.54B7$17.2B8$18.7B9$20.8B9$32B9
Capital expenditure$4.51B10$8.7B11$6.87B12$21.2B12$55.7B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.03B7$8.47B8$11.8B9−$394M9−$23.7B9
Total debt$3.75B13$4.06B14$10.6B15$7.27B16$7.2B16
Cash & equivalents$21.4B17$9.77B18$10.5B19$10.8B20$31.3B20
Diluted shares2.79B2.77B2.82B2.87B2.91B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$145.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.64
Free cash flow it threw off
−$81.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$24.7

10 shares is a claim on $145.88 of net worth that earned you $58.64 and generated −$81.28 of cash last year, against $24.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
253% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 792%FY24 120%FY25 61%FY26 40%

It earned an average 253% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 92% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$37.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-075605 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000950170-25-087926 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001193125-26-277521 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-075605 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000950170-25-087926 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001193125-26-277521 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-075605 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000950170-25-087926 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001193125-26-277521 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-075605 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000950170-25-087926 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001193125-26-277521 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001564590-22-023675 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-075605 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000950170-25-087926 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0001193125-26-277521 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-23-028914 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-075605 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000950170-25-087926 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0001193125-26-277521 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)