MeritValue

Orchid Island Capital, Inc.

ORCdata completeness 75%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. earns about -12% on equity, but has diluted owners by 430% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$134.7M1$144.6M2$177.6M3$241.6M3$414M3
Net income−$64.8M4−$258.5M5−$39.2M6$37.7M6$159M6
Operating cash flow$96.4M7$289.4M8$8M9$67M9$120.4M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$385.1M10$205.7M11$171.9M12$309.3M13$665.9M13
Diluted shares24.2M37.5M44.6M65.4M128.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$106.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.39
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $106.93 of net worth that earned you $12.39 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-12% avg · 5y
FY21 -8%FY22 -59%FY23 -8%FY24 6%FY25 12%

It earned an average -12% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+430% shares · 5y

Share count is up 430% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005327 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004734 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004889 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005327 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004734 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004889 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005327 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004734 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004889 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005355 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005327 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004734 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004889 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)