ORBIT INTERNATIONAL CORP

ORBTdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ORBIT INTERNATIONAL CORP earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~10% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.74 and $22.5 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2010FY 2011FY 2012FY 2013
Revenue$26.7M1$31M2$29.4M3$24.8M3
Net income−$3.03M4$3.15M5−$135,0006−$2.57M6
Operating cash flow$431,0007$1.95M8−$954,0009$3.99M9
Capital expenditure$204,00010$130,00011$373,00012$339,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$227,0007,10$1.82M8,11−$1.33M9,12$3.65M9,12
Total debt$3.96M13,14$3.03M15,16$82,00017,18,19$017,18
Cash & equivalents$1.96M20$1.71M21$610,00021$2.56M21
Diluted shares4.7M4.7M4.6M4.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $35.68 of net worth that earned you −$5.77 and generated $8.19 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 4y
FY10 -12%FY11 16%FY12 0%FY13 -1%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~10% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 4y

Share count is down 6% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.74 and $22.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

$22.5
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.24%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period10 years
  • FCF growth20.0%
  • Starting free cash flow$1.82M
$12.74
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.24%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period5 years
  • FCF growth20.0%
  • Starting free cash flow$1.82M
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.50%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.94
Base20.0%$12.74
Bull20.0%$12.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2012-03-30 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001140361-12-018313 (SalesRevenueGoodsNet)
  2. 10-K filed 2013-03-29 · period ending 2011-12-31 · accession 0001140361-13-014602 (SalesRevenueGoodsNet)
  3. 10-K filed 2014-03-31 · periods ending 2012-12-31, 2013-12-31 · accession 0001140361-14-014769 (SalesRevenueGoodsNet)
  4. 10-K filed 2012-03-30 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001140361-12-018313 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2013-03-29 · period ending 2011-12-31 · accession 0001140361-13-014602 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2014-03-31 · periods ending 2012-12-31, 2013-12-31 · accession 0001140361-14-014769 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2012-03-30 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001140361-12-018313 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2013-03-29 · period ending 2011-12-31 · accession 0001140361-13-014602 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2014-03-31 · periods ending 2012-12-31, 2013-12-31 · accession 0001140361-14-014769 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2012-03-30 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001140361-12-018313 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K filed 2013-03-29 · period ending 2011-12-31 · accession 0001140361-13-014602 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K filed 2014-03-31 · periods ending 2012-12-31, 2013-12-31 · accession 0001140361-14-014769 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K filed 2012-03-30 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001140361-12-018313 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K filed 2012-03-30 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001140361-12-018313 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K filed 2013-03-29 · period ending 2011-12-31 · accession 0001140361-13-014602 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K filed 2013-03-29 · period ending 2011-12-31 · accession 0001140361-13-014602 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K filed 2014-03-31 · periods ending 2012-12-31, 2013-12-31 · accession 0001140361-14-014769 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K filed 2014-03-31 · periods ending 2012-12-31, 2013-12-31 · accession 0001140361-14-014769 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  19. 10-K filed 2013-03-29 · period ending 2012-12-31 · accession 0001140361-13-014602 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K filed 2013-03-29 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001140361-13-014602 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K filed 2014-03-31 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31, 2013-12-31 · accession 0001140361-14-014769 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)