MeritValue

ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

ORAdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $20.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$663.1M1$734.2M2$829.4M3$879.7M3$989.5M3
Net income$62.1M4$65.8M5$124.4M6$123.7M6$123.9M6
Operating cash flow$258.8M7$281M8$309.4M9$410.9M9$335.1M9
Capital expenditure$419.3M10$563.5M11$618.4M12$487.7M12$619.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$160.5M7−$282.5M8−$309M9−$76.8M9−$284.7M9
Total debt$1.93B13$2.05B14$2.09B15$2.44B16$2.76B17
Cash & equivalents$239.3M18$95.9M19$195.8M20$94.4M20$147.4M20
Diluted shares56.4M56.5M59.8M60.8M61.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$414.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.19
Free cash flow it threw off
−$46.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$449.88

10 shares is a claim on $414.58 of net worth that earned you $20.19 and generated −$46.39 of cash last year, against $449.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 43% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$20.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$123.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005322 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008531 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001296445-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005322 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008531 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001296445-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005322 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008531 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001296445-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005322 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008531 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001296445-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-004440 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004477 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005322 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008531 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001296445-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005322 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008531 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001296445-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)