MeritValue

Optex Systems Holdings Inc

OPXSdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Optex Systems Holdings Inc earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.02 and $3.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.2M1$22.4M2$25.7M3$34M4$41.3M4
Net income$2.13M5$1.28M6$2.26M7$3.77M8$5.15M8
Operating cash flow$481,0009$2.04M10−$296,00011$1.78M12$6.93M12
Capital expenditure$274,00013$257,00014$376,00015$681,00016$494,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$207,0009$1.79M10−$672,00011$1.1M12$6.44M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$3.9M17$934,00018$1.2M19$1.01M20$6.39M20
Diluted shares8.3M8.2M6.7M6.8M6.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.3
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $35.08 of net worth that earned you $7.43 and generated $9.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 11%FY23 17%FY24 21%FY25 29%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.02 and $3.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.1M
Earnings Power Value
$3.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.26M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.19
Base0.0%$3.19
Bull5.0%$3.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0001493152-22-035871 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0001493152-23-045259 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0001493152-24-050771 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0001493152-25-028071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0001493152-22-035871 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0001493152-23-045259 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0001493152-24-050771 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0001493152-25-028071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0001493152-22-035871 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0001493152-23-045259 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0001493152-24-050771 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0001493152-25-028071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0001493152-22-035871 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0001493152-23-045259 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0001493152-24-050771 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0001493152-25-028071 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0001493152-22-035871 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0001493152-23-045259 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0001493152-24-050771 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0001493152-25-028071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)