MeritValue

OptimizeRx Corp

OPRXdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OptimizeRx Corp earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.69 and $13.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.52M1$1.03M1$71.5M2$92.1M3$109.4M3
Net income$378,0794−$11.4M5−$17.6M6−$20.1M7$5.13M7
Operating cash flow$726,0398$10.7M9−$7.24M10$4.89M11$18.7M11
Capital expenditure$100,32212$81,00513$87,00014$112,00015$58,00015
Free cash flow (derived)$625,7178$10.6M9−$7.33M10$4.78M11$18.7M11
Total debt——$74.5M16$67.1M17$52M17
Cash & equivalents$84.7M18$18.2M19$13.9M20$13.4M21$23.4M21
Diluted shares17.7M17.8M17.1M18.3M19.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$67.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$27.35

10 shares is a claim on $67.53 of net worth that earned you $2.7 and generated $9.82 of cash last year, against $27.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -8%FY23 -10%FY24 -9%FY25 3%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 30% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.69 and $13.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$4.78M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$4.78M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$6.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.09
Base20.0%$6.69
Bull20.0%$6.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019233 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025576 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001448431-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019221 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033000 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025576 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001448431-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019221 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033000 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025576 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001448431-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019221 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033000 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025576 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001448431-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025576 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001448431-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019221 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033000 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025576 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001448431-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)