MeritValue

Oportun Financial Corp

OPRTdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Oportun Financial Corp earns about -18% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $58.25 and $63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$813,0001$31.2M2$25.6M3$22.7M4$19.5M4
Net income$47.4M5−$77.7M6−$180M7−$78.7M8$25.2M8
Operating cash flow$163.4M9$247.9M10$392.8M11$393.5M12$413.4M12
Capital expenditure$12.3M13$6M13———
Free cash flow (derived)$151.2M9$241.9M10———
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$131M14$98.8M15$91.2M16$60M17$105.5M17
Diluted shares30.3M32.8M36.9M40.4M47.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.28
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $81.51 of net worth that earned you $5.28 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-18% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 -13%FY23 -64%FY24 -31%FY25 9%

It earned about -18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $58.25 and $63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$151.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$151.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$9.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.25
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.33
Base5.0%$58.25
Bull10.0%$71.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001538716-23-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001538716-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001538716-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001538716-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001538716-23-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001538716-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001538716-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001538716-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001538716-23-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001538716-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001538716-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001538716-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001538716-23-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001538716-23-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001538716-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001538716-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001538716-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)