MeritValue

OPENLANE, Inc.

OPLNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OPENLANE, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.65 and $124.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.45B1$1.53B2$1.7B3$1.79B3$1.93B3
Net income$66.5M4$241.2M5−$154.1M6$109.9M6$177.7M6
Operating cash flow$233.9M7$4.1M8$237M9$292.8M9$391.9M9
Capital expenditure$64.2M10$60.9M11$52M12$53M12$55.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$169.7M7−$56.8M8$185M9$239.8M9$336.5M9
Total debt$3.75B13$992.7M14$721.6M15$453.2M16$1.09B16
Cash & equivalents$177.6M17$225.7M18$93.5M19$143M20$141.5M20
Diluted shares123.0M116.3M109.1M109.2M106.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$116.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$101.55

10 shares is a claim on $116.06 of net worth that earned you $16.62 and generated $31.48 of cash last year, against $101.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 3%FY23 -5%FY24 8%FY25 9%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 71% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.65 and $124.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$124.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$239.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$64.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$239.8M
Earnings Power Value
$10.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$109.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $64.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.22
Base20.0%$64.31
Bull20.0%$64.31

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001395942-24-000010 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001395942-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001395942-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001395942-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001395942-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001395942-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001395942-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001395942-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001395942-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001395942-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001395942-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001395942-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001395942-23-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001395942-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001395942-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001395942-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001395942-23-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001395942-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001395942-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001395942-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)