MeritValue

OppFi Inc.

OPFIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OppFi Inc. earns about 19% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 69% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.84 and $683.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$350.6M1$452.9M2$508.9M3$526M3$597.1M3
Net income$25.6M4$7.1M5−$1.01M6$7.26M6$26.3M6
Operating cash flow$167.3M7$243.3M8$296.1M9$323.8M9$401.3M9
Capital expenditure$14.4M10$13.3M11$8.99M12$13M12$19.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$153M7$230M8$287.2M9$310.8M9$382.2M9
Total debt$50M13————
Cash & equivalents$25.1M14$16.2M15$31.8M16$61.3M17$49.5M17
Diluted shares84.5M84.3M16.4M20.1M26.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$144.19
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $22.06 of net worth that earned you $9.93 and generated $144.19 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
19% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -10%FY24 22%FY25 45%

It earned about 19% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−69% shares · 5y

Share count is down 69% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.84 and $683.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$683.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.7%
  • fcfBase$310.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$379.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.7%
  • fcfBase$310.8M
Earnings Power Value
$2.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.26M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $379.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$169.39
Base19.7%$379.18
Bull20.0%$384.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818502-24-000005 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818502-25-000003 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818502-26-000019 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818502-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818502-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818502-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818502-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818502-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818502-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818502-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818502-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818502-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818502-23-000002 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818502-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818502-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818502-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001818502-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)