MeritValue

Opendoor Technologies Inc.

OPENdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Opendoor Technologies Inc. earns about -1068% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.93 and $60.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.02B1$15.6B2$6.95B3$5.15B3$4.37B3
Net income−$662M4−$1.35B5−$275M6−$392M6−$1.3B6
Operating cash flow−$5.79B7$730M8$2.34B9−$595M9$1.05B9
Capital expenditure$33M10$37M11$37M12$25M12$12M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.83B7$693M8$2.31B9−$620M9$1.04B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.73B13$1.14B14$999M15$671M15$962M15
Diluted shares592.6M627.1M657.1M699.5M766.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.53
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $13.11 of net worth that earned you −$16.96 and generated $13.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1068% avg · 5y
FY21 -79%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -735%FY25 -2388%

It earned about -1068% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.93 and $60.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$60.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.0%
  • fcfBase$1.04B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.0%
  • fcfBase$1.04B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.58
Base16.0%$38.93
Bull20.0%$45.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801169-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801169-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801169-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801169-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801169-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801169-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801169-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801169-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801169-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801169-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801169-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801169-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801169-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801169-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801169-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)