MeritValue

Option Care Health, Inc.

OPCHdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Option Care Health, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.17 and $66.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.44B1$3.87B2$4.3B3$5B3$5.65B3
Net income$139.9M4$150.6M5$267.1M6$211.8M6$207.6M6
Operating cash flow$208.6M7$267.5M8$371.3M9$323.4M9$258.4M9
Capital expenditure$25.6M10$35.4M11$41.9M12$35.6M12$41.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$182.9M7$232.2M8$329.4M9$287.8M9$217.1M9
Total debt$2.13B13$2.13B14$2.13B15$2.22B16$2.32B16
Cash & equivalents$119.4M17$294.2M18$343.8M19$412.6M20$232.6M20
Diluted shares181.2M182.1M180.4M172.8M163.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$142.12

10 shares is a claim on $81.19 of net worth that earned you $12.71 and generated $13.29 of cash last year, against $142.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 6%FY23 10%FY24 7%FY25 6%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.17 and $66.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$66.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.3%
  • fcfBase$287.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.3%
  • fcfBase$287.8M
Earnings Power Value
$13.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$207.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.38
Base16.3%$36.93
Bull20.0%$44.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014739-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014739-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014739-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014739-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014739-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014739-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014739-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014739-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014739-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014739-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014739-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014739-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014739-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014739-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014739-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001014739-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014739-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014739-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014739-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001014739-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)