MeritValue

OP Bancorp

OPBKdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

OP Bancorp earns about 80% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.82 and $49.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.56M1$1.68M2$2.12M3$3.26M3$3.2M3
Net income$28.8M4$33.3M5$23.9M6$21.1M6$25.6M6
Operating cash flow−$28.3M7$83.7M8$67.8M9$31.2M9$26.2M9
Capital expenditure$1.13M10$1.41M11$2.18M12$1.56M12$2.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$29.4M7$82.3M8$65.6M9$29.7M9$23.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$115.5M13$83M14$91.2M15$134.9M16$167.3M16
Diluted shares15.2M15.2M15.2M14.9M14.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$152.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.67
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $152.89 of net worth that earned you $17.2 and generated $15.67 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
80% avg · 5y
FY21 62%FY22 44%FY23 61%FY24 98%FY25 136%

It earned about 80% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.82 and $49.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$49.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$29.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$29.7M
Earnings Power Value
$17.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$39.67
Base5.0%$46.56
Bull10.0%$54.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013750 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015428 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001722010-26-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013750 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015428 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001722010-26-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013750 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015428 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001722010-26-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013750 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015428 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001722010-26-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008245 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013750 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015428 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001722010-26-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)