MeritValue

OPAL Fuels Inc.

OPALdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

OPAL Fuels Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$162M1$230.7M2$251.1M3$290.9M4$326.7M4
Net income−$16.2M5$32.6M6$127M7$14.3M8$36.4M8
Operating cash flow$18.9M9−$1.36M10$38.3M11$31.4M12$36.5M12
Capital expenditure$89.6M13$131.4M14$113.8M15$127.2M16$70.7M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$70.8M9−$132.8M10−$75.6M11−$95.9M12−$34.2M12
Total debt$134.1M17$258.8M18$405.6M19$592.5M19$361.3M20
Cash & equivalents$39.3M21$40.4M22$38.3M23$24.3M24$24.4M24
Diluted shares026.1M27.5M27.7M29.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$4.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$123.5

10 shares is a claim on −$4.42 of net worth that earned you $12.45 and generated −$11.71 of cash last year, against $123.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 43%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 1%FY25 -4%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 169% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$11.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$32.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842279-23-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842279-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842279-25-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017908 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-070682 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842279-24-000012 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842279-25-000049 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017908 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842279-23-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842279-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842279-25-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017908 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842279-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842279-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842279-25-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017908 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842279-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842279-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842279-25-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017908 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842279-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842279-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842279-25-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017908 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)