Offerpad Solutions Inc.
OPADdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Offerpad Solutions Inc. earns about -395% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 225% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.88 and $31.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.07B1 | $3.95B2 | $1.31B3 | $918.8M3 | $567.8M3 |
| Net income | $6.46M4 | −$148.6M5 | −$117.2M6 | −$62.2M6 | −$46.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$921.9M7 | $305.4M8 | $261.6M9 | $20.8M9 | $66.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $13.7M10 | $1.07M11 | $127,00012 | $5.41M12 | $1.08M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$935.6M7 | $304.3M8 | $261.5M9 | $15.4M9 | $65.7M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $169.8M13 | $97.2M14 | $76M15 | $43M15 | $26.5M15 |
| Diluted shares | 9.5M | 16.3M | 26.4M | 27.4M | 31.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $12.33 of net worth that earned you −$14.97 and generated $21.21 of cash last year.
It earned about -395% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 225% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.88 and $31.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$65.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$65.7M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $31.16 |
| Base | 0.0% | $31.16 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $38.5 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021141 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026788 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067147 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021141 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026788 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067147 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021141 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026788 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067147 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021141 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026788 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067147 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021141 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026788 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067147 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)