MeritValue

ONTO INNOVATION INC.

ONTOdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ONTO INNOVATION INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.94 and $265.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$788.9M1$1.01B2$815.9M3$987.3M3$1.01B3
Net income$142.3M4$223.3M5$121.2M6$201.7M6$136.8M6
Operating cash flow$175.3M7$136.7M8$172M9$245.7M9$328.3M9
Capital expenditure$12M10$18.4M11$22.6M12$31.9M12$28.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$163.2M7$118.3M8$149.4M9$213.8M9$299.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$169.6M13$175.9M14$233.5M15$212.9M16$346.1M16
Diluted shares49.7M49.8M49.3M49.7M49.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$426.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$60.85
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $426.33 of net worth that earned you $27.76 and generated $60.85 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 -10%FY22 16%FY23 8%FY24 12%FY26 8%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.94 and $265.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$265.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$213.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$148.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$213.8M
Earnings Power Value
$29.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$142.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$51.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $148.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$69.01
Base20.0%$148.48
Bull20.0%$148.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-020150 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026729 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-066937 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-020150 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026729 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-066937 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-020150 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026729 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-066937 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-020150 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026729 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-066937 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-004283 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020150 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-026729 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-066937 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)