MeritValue

Onterris, Inc.

ONTdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Onterris, Inc. earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.66 and $37.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$546.4M1$544.4M2$624.2M3$696.4M3$830.5M3
Net income−$25.3M4−$31.8M5−$30.9M6−$62.3M6−$843,0006
Operating cash flow$37.6M7$20.6M8$56M9$22.2M9$107.5M9
Capital expenditure$6.89M10$9.58M11$29.6M12$21.3M12$16.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$30.7M7$11.1M8$26.4M9$902,0009$91.2M9
Total debt$347.8M13$330.8M14$327.7M15$446.4M16$288.3M16
Cash & equivalents$146.3M17$89.8M18$23.2M19$12.9M20$11.2M20
Diluted shares26.7M29.7M30.1M33.1M35.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$128.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$82.09

10 shares is a claim on $128.47 of net worth that earned you −$0.24 and generated $25.96 of cash last year, against $82.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 -5%FY23 -5%FY24 -6%FY25 -1%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 5y

Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.66 and $37.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$37.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$26.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$26.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.87
Base20.0%$16.66
Bull20.0%$16.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030806 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076511 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030806 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076511 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030806 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076511 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030806 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076511 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005501 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030806 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076511 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-008029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030806 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076511 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)