MeritValue

ONITY GROUP INC.

ONITdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ONITY GROUP INC. earns about 80% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $30.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$42.7M1$33.2M2$32M3$42M3$57.8M3
Net income$18.1M4$25.7M5−$63.7M6$33.9M6$189.5M6
Operating cash flow−$468.4M7$173.2M8$10.4M9−$573.8M9−$748M9
Capital expenditure$3.3M10$5.5M11$2.2M12$800,00012$2.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$471.7M7$167.7M8$8.2M9−$574.6M9−$750.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$192.8M13$208M14$201.6M15$184.8M15$180.5M15
Diluted shares9.4M9.0M7.6M8.1M8.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$726.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$219.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$869.37
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $726.96 of net worth that earned you $219.4 and generated −$869.37 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
80% avg · 5y
FY21 39%FY22 85%FY23 85%FY24 110%FY25 83%

It earned an average 80% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$30.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$187.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007261 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007126 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008625 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007261 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007126 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008625 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007261 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007126 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008625 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007261 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007126 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008625 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007261 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007126 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008625 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)