Onconetix, Inc.

ONCOdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Onconetix, Inc. earns about -268% on equity, and has bought back 71% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	$58,465¹	$2.52M²	$815,371²
Net income	−$3.42M³	−$13.4M³	−$37.4M⁴	−$58.7M⁵	−$14M⁵
Operating cash flow	−$2.04M⁶	−$8.68M⁷	−$13.6M⁸	−$10.5M⁹	−$9.68M⁹
Capital expenditure	$1,924¹⁰	$9,339¹¹	$3,300¹²	$28,471¹³	—
Free cash flow (derived)	−$2.05M⁶	−$8.68M⁷	−$13.6M⁸	−$10.5M⁹	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$1.93M¹⁴	$25.8M¹⁴	$4.55M¹⁵	$646,500¹⁵	$5.22M¹⁵
Diluted shares	3.2M	12.3M	427,784	32,301	937,690

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$168.12

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$149.65

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $168.12 of net worth that earned you −$149.65 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-268% avg · 5y

FY21 -236%FY22 -60%FY23 —FY24 -687%FY25 -89%

It earned an average -268% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−71% shares · 5y

Share count is down 71% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-049687 (Revenues)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027725 (Revenues)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-018635 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-049687 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027725 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-018635 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-032225 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-049687 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027725 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-018635 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-032225 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-049687 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027725 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-018635 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027725 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)