MeritValue

OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/

ONBdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 120% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.29 and $101.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$125.6M1$1.45B2$2.21B3$2.6B3$3.27B3
Net income$277.5M4$428.3M5$582M6$539.2M6$669.3M6
Operating cash flow$330.4M7$814.4M8$516.3M9$622.3M9$681.5M9
Capital expenditure$48.7M10$37.9M11$38.4M12$30.3M12$44.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$281.7M7$776.5M8$478M9$592M9$637.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$822M13$728.4M14$1.18B15$1.23B16$1.83B16
Diluted shares165.9M276.7M291.9M311.0M365.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$232.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.44
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $232.44 of net worth that earned you $18.31 and generated $17.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 12%FY23 26%FY24 34%FY25 35%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+120% shares · 5y

Share count is up 120% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.29 and $101.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$101.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$592M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$57.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$592M
Earnings Power Value
$15.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$539.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $57.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.14
Base20.0%$57.81
Bull20.0%$57.81

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000707179-22-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000707179-25-000005 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000707179-26-000010 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000707179-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000707179-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000707179-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000707179-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000707179-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000707179-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000707179-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000707179-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000707179-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000707179-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000707179-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000707179-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000707179-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)