MeritValue

ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP

ONdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.64 and $39.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.74B1$8.33B2$8.25B3$7.08B3$6B3
Net income$1.01B4$1.9B5$2.18B6$1.57B6$121M6
Operating cash flow$1.78B7$2.63B8$1.98B9$1.91B9$1.76B9
Capital expenditure$444.6M10$1.04B11$1.54B12$694M12$341.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.34B7$1.6B8$438.4M9$1.21B9$1.42B9
Total debt$6.33B13$6.42B14$6.72B15$6.69B16$5.96B16
Cash & equivalents$1.35B17$2.92B18$2.48B19$2.69B19$2.15B19
Diluted shares443.8M448.2M446.8M432.7M411.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$186.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$144.75

10 shares is a claim on $186.34 of net worth that earned you $2.94 and generated $34.45 of cash last year, against $144.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 20%FY23 19%FY24 12%FY25 1%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.64 and $39.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.21B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.21B
Earnings Power Value
$39.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.57B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.8
Base0.0%$32.8
Bull5.0%$42.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003201 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004557 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001097864-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003201 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004557 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001097864-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003201 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004557 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001097864-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003201 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004557 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001097864-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002350 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003201 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004557 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001097864-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003201 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004557 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001097864-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)