Omada Health, Inc.

OMDAdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Omada Health, Inc. earns about -6% on equity, but has diluted owners by 417% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$122.8M¹	$169.8M¹	$260.2M¹
Net income	−$67.5M²	−$47.1M²	−$12.8M²
Operating cash flow	−$49.7M³	−$34.2M³	$18.3M³
Capital expenditure	$416,000⁴	$596,000⁴	$1.32M⁴
Free cash flow (derived)	−$50.2M³	−$34.8M³	$16.9M³
Total debt	—	$29.8M⁵	$0⁵
Cash & equivalents	$115.6M⁶	$76.4M⁷	$222M⁷
Diluted shares	7.1M	7.7M	36.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$62.69

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$3.49

Free cash flow it threw off

$4.62

Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $62.69 of net worth that earned you −$3.49 and generated $4.62 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-6% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -6%

It earned an average -6% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+417% shares · 3y

Share count is up 417% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015637 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015637 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015637 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015637 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015637 (LongTermDebt)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015637 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015637 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)