MeritValue

OMNICELL, INC.

OMCLdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OMNICELL, INC. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.26 and $47.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.13B1$1.3B2$1.15B3$1.11B3$1.18B3
Net income$77.8M4$5.65M5−$20.4M6$12.5M6$2.05M6
Operating cash flow$231.8M7$77.8M8$181.1M9$187.7M9$127.3M9
Capital expenditure$29M10$47.5M11$41.5M12$36.5M12$40.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$202.8M7$30.2M8$139.6M9$151.3M9$86.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$349.1M13$330.4M14$468M15$369.2M15$196.5M15
Diluted shares47.9M45.9M45.2M46.3M46.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$265.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.74
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $265.69 of net worth that earned you $0.44 and generated $18.74 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 -0%FY23 -2%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.26 and $47.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$44.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$139.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$139.6M
Earnings Power Value
$1.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.65M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.27
Base0.0%$47.27
Bull5.0%$57.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000926326-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000926326-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000926326-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000926326-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000926326-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000926326-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000926326-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000926326-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000926326-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000926326-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000926326-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000926326-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000926326-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000926326-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000926326-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)