MeritValue

OMNICOM GROUP INC.

OMCdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OMNICOM GROUP INC. earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $70.37 and $169.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.3B1$14.3B2$14.7B3$15.7B3$17.3B3
Net income$1.41B4$1.32B5$1.39B6$1.48B6−$54.5M6
Operating cash flow$1.95B7$926.5M8$1.42B9$1.73B9$2.94B9
Capital expenditure$665.8M10$78.2M11$78.4M12$140.6M12$149.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.28B7$848.3M8$1.34B9$1.59B9$2.79B9
Total debt$5.74B13$5.63B14$5.68B15$6.09B16$9.33B17
Cash & equivalents$5.32B18$4.28B19$4.43B19$4.34B19$6.88B19
Diluted shares215.6M207.0M201.4M198.6M204.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$587.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.66
Free cash flow it threw off
$136.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$455.58

10 shares is a claim on $587.89 of net worth that earned you −$2.66 and generated $136.09 of cash last year, against $455.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 45%FY22 34%FY23 33%FY24 29%FY25 2%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 63% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $70.37 and $169.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$169.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$1.59B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$141.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$1.59B
Earnings Power Value
$70.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.39B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $141.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$99.1
Base7.6%$141.83
Bull12.6%$177.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029989-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029989-25-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029989-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029989-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029989-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029989-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029989-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029989-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029989-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029989-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029989-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029989-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029989-22-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029989-23-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029989-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000029989-25-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000029989-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029989-22-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029989-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)