Central North Airport Group
OMABdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Central North Airport Group earns about 57% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.38 and $26.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $269.6M1 | $426M2 | $612.9M3 | $854.5M4 | $725.1M5 |
| Net income | $55M6 | $139.6M7 | $200.3M8 | $296.2M9 | $237.1M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $65.5M11 | $217.3M12 | $256M13 | $374.4M14 | $298.1M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $7.94M16 | $4.95M17 | $12.1M18 | $23.9M19 | $15.5M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $57.5M11 | $212.3M12 | $243.9M13 | $350.5M14 | $282.7M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $144.6M21 | $307.5M22 | $197.2M23 | $123.9M24 | $79.7M24 |
| Diluted shares | 390.3M | 388.6M | 386.2M | 386.2M | 386.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $12.94 of net worth that earned you $6.14 and generated $7.32 of cash last year.
It earned about 57% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.38 and $26.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth13.4%
- fcfBase$282.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth13.4%
- fcfBase$282.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$200.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $10.66 |
| Base | 13.4% | $18.59 |
| Bull | 18.4% | $22.62 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 13.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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