Central North Airport Group

OMABdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Central North Airport Group earns about 57% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.38 and $26.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$269.6M1$426M2$612.9M3$854.5M4$725.1M5
Net income$55M6$139.6M7$200.3M8$296.2M9$237.1M10
Operating cash flow$65.5M11$217.3M12$256M13$374.4M14$298.1M15
Capital expenditure$7.94M16$4.95M17$12.1M18$23.9M19$15.5M20
Free cash flow (derived)$57.5M11$212.3M12$243.9M13$350.5M14$282.7M15
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$144.6M21$307.5M22$197.2M23$123.9M24$79.7M24
Diluted shares390.3M388.6M386.2M386.2M386.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.32
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $12.94 of net worth that earned you $6.14 and generated $7.32 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
57% avg · 5y
FY20 14%FY21 60%FY22 86%FY23 66%FY24 57%

It earned about 57% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.38 and $26.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.4%
  • fcfBase$282.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.4%
  • fcfBase$282.7M
Earnings Power Value
$5.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$200.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.66
Base13.4%$18.59
Bull18.4%$22.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-005352 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-006443 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007311 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-006069 (Revenue)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005842 (Revenue)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-005352 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-006443 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007311 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-006069 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005842 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-005352 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-006443 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007311 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-006069 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005842 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-005352 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-006443 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007311 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-006069 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005842 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-006443 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007311 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-006069 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005842 (CashAndCashEquivalents)