MeritValue

OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC.

OLPXdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.96 and $2.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$598.4M1$704.3M2$458.3M3$422.7M3$423M3
Net income$220.8M4$244.1M5$61.6M6$19.5M6−$9.25M6
Operating cash flow$200M7$255.3M8$177.5M9$143.1M9$58.7M9
Capital expenditure$875,00010$650,00011$375,00012$1.12M12$331,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$199.2M7$254.7M8$177.2M9$141.9M9$58.3M9
Total debt$1.52B13$1.33B14$1.31B15$1.3B16$704.6M16
Cash & equivalents$186.4M17$322.8M18$466.4M19$586M20$318.7M20
Diluted shares689.9M691.0M677.6M665.4M666.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$10.57

10 shares is a claim on $13.19 of net worth that earned you −$0.14 and generated $0.88 of cash last year, against $10.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 16%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 2%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 54% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.96 and $2.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$141.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$141.9M
Earnings Power Value
$0.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$61.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.46
Base0.0%$2.46
Bull5.0%$3.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868726-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868726-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868726-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868726-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868726-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868726-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868726-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868726-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868726-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868726-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868726-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868726-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868726-23-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868726-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868726-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001868726-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868726-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868726-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868726-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001868726-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)